Dynamic Updating of Psychosis Prediction Models in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk of Psychosis

Abstract

Background: The performance of psychiatric risk calculators can deteriorate over time due to changes in patient population, referral pathways, and medical advances. Such temporal biases in existing models may lead to suboptimal decisions when translated into clinical practice. Methods are available to correct this bias, but no research has been conducted to investigate their utility in psychiatry. Methods: We aimed to analyze the performance of model updating methods for predicting psychosis onset by 1 year in 780 individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis from the UHR 1000+ cohort, a longitudinal cohort of UHR individuals recruited to research studies at Orygen, Melbourne, Australia,..